Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V15_2/V15NO259.TXT

Internet Message Format | 1993-07-13 | 32KB

Date: Tue, 29 Sep 92 05:04:10
From: Space Digest maintainer <[e-mail]>
Reply-To: [e-mail]
Subject: Space Digest V15 #259
To: Space Digest Readers
Precedence: bulk


Space Digest                Tue, 29 Sep 92       Volume 15 : Issue 259

Today's Topics:
                             21cm rights
    Atlas E and F questions ( Actually Pershing missile) (2 msgs)
                    a twist on dynamic structures
                       Clinto and Space Funding
                      Clinton and Space Funding
Henry's hypersonic summary (was Re: Hypersonic test vehicle proposed)
             Mars Observer Update - 09/25/92 (Launch Day)
Nick Szabo Disinformation debunking (Re: Clinton and Space Funding) (3 msgs)
                              platforms
                 Space Life Sciences Training Program
             Space platforms (political, not physical :-)
             Toutatis impact in 2000 AD? (was Re: Help !)

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 18:32:48 EDT
From: Tom <[e-mail]>
Subject: 21cm rights

>>>Also, with strict property rights, you own whatever is over your
>>>land.  So, radio emmissions are, technically, pollution.  Anyone
>>>could sue for quiet in the 21cm band...in their neighborhood.

>>So let me get this straight.  Libertarians believe that I should be able to
>sue the local TV station for broadcasting radio waves in the air over my land?
>Can I also refuse to let airline pilots talk to ground control if they're over
>>my house?  If I lived nearer the equator, would NASA have to refrain from
>talking to astronauts?  Would the Moon undergo a radio blackout once a day?

Yeah, this kind of thing really does bring into question the definition of
'property'.  I won't even attempt that in this forum.

>Something wierder occured to me after I posted this.  Do Libertarians restrict
>this right to radio waves or does it apply to other frequencies as well?  For
>example, can I sue my neighbor for having his outdoor lights on if I want to
>sleep?  Or more interestingly, could major obervatories sue the inhabitants
>of nearby cities because of light pollution?

Well, I wouldn't presume to speak for all Libertarians, but, in strict
property rights, I'd think that would be a possible scenario.  What would
you do, if you had recently built a nice roll-off observatory in your
backyard, and your neighbor decided to install a 5000 watt spotlight, just
for kicks?  For that matter, there already are limitations on sound
'radiation', based on "free use and enjoyment."   Why not light, too?

'Course, whenever I'm out with the 'scope, my backdoor neigbor ususally
turns off his porchlight at my request :-)

In the case of 21cm, I'd bet the 'de facto' ownership scenario would be
more realistic, given some sudden Libertarian philosophy revolution.

-Tommy Mac                     .  "                  +
.------------------------  +                      *       +
|   Tom McWilliams; scrub       ,     .                        "        +
|  astronomy undergrad, at     *       +;.     .  '             There is
| Michigan State University   '                      .    "   no Gosh!
|   [e-mail]                        '      ,   *
|       [phone]       ;  +  '                                 *
'-----------------------

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 18:12:21 GMT
From: Doug Mohney <[e-mail]>
Subject: Atlas E and F questions ( Actually Pershing missile)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Henry Spencer) writes:

>The Pershings would probably make okay sounding rockets, if the treaty
>language was suitable.  (There are problems here, which is why the treaty
>called for destruction and set time limits.  A sounding rocket sitting in
>a warehouse awaiting launch needs only a warhead and a launch truck to
>become a weapon again.)

It's all moot, cuz all the Pershing IIs and SS-20s HAD to be scrapped, and (I
believe) already have, with the exception of the training hardware sitting at
the Air and Space Museum ... there might be a counterpart Pershing sitting
in the Russian equal of the A&S, but I'm not too sure.

I do know getting the Pershing and SS-22 into A&S requires some special
handling consideration under treaty, don't remember the details.


                 Play in the intelluctual sandbox of Usenet

  -- >                  [e-mail]                        < --

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 19:23:13 GMT
From: Henry Spencer <[e-mail]>
Subject: Atlas E and F questions ( Actually Pershing missile)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Pat) writes:
>>Oh, if you let the Pershings go as government surplus at fire-sale prices,
>>they'd be cheaper than commercial sounding rockets.  Of course, this has
>>a good chance of bankrupting some of the sounding-rocket companies by
>>flooding the market with government-subsidized competition...
>
>as for the sounding rocket companies.  pay them to run the launches.
>then they get the profits from launch...

What about the ones who are neither manned nor equipped to handle Pershings?
Sounding rockets are not like jellybeans, where a different flavor just
means a different color.  While they're all broadly similar, details matter
a lot, and not every company is going to be happy if you dump a bunch of
free Pershings on its doorstep.  For that matter, how do you decide which
companies get them and how many?

The way to handle this is to think capitalist, not socialist.  Sell the
Pershings at a competitive market price for sounding rockets of that size.
Use the revenues to fund a one-time-only launch-grant program for the
experimenters:  show your payload ready for launch, get a voucher good
for $XXX toward one launch, first come first served, until the money from
the Pershings runs out.  Same net result, but without the destructive
side effects on the industry.
--
There is nothing wrong with making      | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
mistakes, but... make *new* ones. -D.Sim|  [e-mail]  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 20:19:42 GMT
From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey <[e-mail]>
Subject: a twist on dynamic structures
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Henry Spencer) writes:
> In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>>How about fuel pellets being accelerated from a ground-based station
>>up into the 'nozzle' of a rocket ship in flight...
>
> The idea has been proposed before, in the context of interstellar
> propulsion

Yes.  See articles by C.E. Singer in *Journal of the British
Interplanetary Society* in the late Seventies and early Eighties.  I
believe Singer is now at the University of Illinois.

Engineer of Hijacked Train:      Bill Higgins
"Is this a holdup?"
                                 Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
Masked Gunman:
(Hesitates, looks at partner,    Bitnet: [e-mail]
looks at engineer again)         SPAN/Hepnet/Physnet: 43011::HIGGINS
"It's a science experiment!"     Internet: [e-mail]

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 16:31:20 GMT
From: Robert Nehls <rn11195@sage>
Subject: Clinto and Space Funding
Newsgroups: sci.space

[e-mail] writes:
:
: Japan and Germany have relatively little military spending, and as a result of
: this they can spend more on government support of civilian R & D programs.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Japan and Germany had a unique advantage in that they lost WWII, (this
sounds stupid, but I'm talking about today, not 50 years ago) and weren't
allowed to have militaries.  Also, because of the reconstruction after the
war (much of which was funded by the US), Japan and Germany were given new
factories which were often better than the older ones that were left in the
US. Things were tough for them and they did do a lot of things right and for
that they do deserve a lot of credit.
:
: >Do you really think that it is a coincidence that
: >the military and space budget cuts coincide with the Japenese gaining a
: >technological edge?
:
: Come on... They've had an edge for a *lot* longer than that!
             ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not true.  If you look at the emergence of the Japenese as a superpower,
they didn't really have any say in the world's economic picture until the
mid-70s.  This is the same time period when NASA's budget began to take
serious hits and the military started to take a lot of heat (post-Vietnam).
If you look at Japan's R and D efforts up until then it was pretty dismal.
It basically consisted of taking apart US products to see how they worked
and then repackage them at a lower cost.  Even today, that is what Japan is
best at.  Even though they are leading in a lot of fields.  If you look at
the technologies involved, most of the theoretical work was done outside of
Japan.  The Japanese will be the first to admit that due to the rigid
structure of their culture, they are not as creative as a lot of western
countries.  What they are good at is producing.  This IMO is why Japan is
doing so well.  They let others do the R and D which is expensive and very
time consuming, while they fine tune their manufacturing facilities in order
to exploit the product once it is ready to be produced.  They have already
stated that they don't necessarily abide by any patents and even if
something does go to court, they've already made their billions off of it
and they're willing to take a slap on the wrist and pay a few millions in
penalities.

: seen to be spent. This is what MITI does in Japan, and look how successful they
: have been.
:
: This is where that military money can and should be spent. However, the typical
                                    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Dave, this is exactly what I was talking about.  So many people can say
where the money should go, but nobody knows where it goes when its cut from
the military budget.  It just vanishes and leaves thousands of people out of
work.  As I stated in my previous post.  Until the programs are set up to
orderly divert the money to another R and D effort, it should stay in the
military budget where at least it is going some good.

(other rhetoric deleted)

--

Bob Nehls                             Sr. Design Engineer
[e-mail]            [phone]

Working Towards Full Life...

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 23:25:22 GMT
From: "Carlos G. Niederstrasser" <phoenix.Princeton.EDU![e-mail]>
Subject: Clinton and Space Funding
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Gary Coffman)
writes:
> Spanish "colonies" were fundamentally different from the Plymouth colony
> which is why I didn't include them.

The Spanish possesions were colonies, just like any other.  The main difference
was that they actually prospered because of the large mineral wealth found in
New Spain.  Plymouth on the other hand took years to fully develope because
there was no wealth to speak of.  So in this case I would rather compare a
Spanish colony with our future moon colonies.  We are not going to seriously
colonize the moon with people seeking religious freedoms, the only way to do
it, and what most of us probably would like to see, is getting all the
resources that the moon, asteroids, etc can offer.

>They were Missions, funded by the
> Church, and they were Conquistidors funded by the Spanish "military
> industrial complex."

Yes, the _first_ colonies and Conquistadores were funded by the military,
because then, as now, it was the easiest and largest fund of money.  Later the
main funding came from the large amount of trade being generated.  Again, just
like I would like to see happen to space colonies.

>They were mainly *men* who acquired "native" women as
> companions, something highly unlikely in outer space since "Mars Needs
> Women", or so I've heard. :-)

Sure there were those who 'aquired' women, but again that was mainly during the
first phases.  By the time Plymouth was founded, New Spain was a thriving
vise-royalty, with a fully developed social structure.  Again, kind of what we
hope will eventually happen with space colonies.

One final note, it is Venus who needs the women... :-)

--
---------------------------------------------------------------------
| Carlos G. Niederstrasser        |   It is difficult to say what   |
| Princeton Planetary Society     | is impossible; for the dream of |
|                                 | yesterday, is the hope of today |
|                                 |   and the reality of tomorrow   |
| [e-mail]   |---------------------------------|
| [e-mail]     |    Ad Astra per Ardua Nostra    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------

--
---------------------------------------------------------------------
| Carlos G. Niederstrasser        |   It is difficult to say what   |
| Princeton Planetary Society     | is impossible; for the dream of |
|                                 | yesterday, is the hope of today |

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 23:58:26 GMT
From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey <[e-mail]>
Subject: Henry's hypersonic summary (was Re: Hypersonic test vehicle proposed)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Henry Spencer) writes:
> In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>>         Aurora
>>         TSTO/XB-70 like aircraft (AW&ST, August 24, 1992)
>>         X-30                     (AW&ST, September 14, 1992)
>>         HALO                     (AW&ST, September 14, 1992)
>>         HL-20
>>         SSTO/DCX/DCY
>>         others ?
>>
>>Could somebody on this list explain the differences between these
>>projects ?

Hmm, possible fodder for the FAQ list...

>
> Okay, here's a quick rundown.
[good summaries deleted, except for:]
> The X-30 is/was a project to build a high-hypersonic aircraft ultimately
> capable of reaching orbit.  It is dying because the pricetag for flight
> vehicles is too high.  The project has done some useful work on things
> like high-temperature materials, which other projects may use.

In a definitive summary, Henry, you should have mentioned that the
X-30 is the product of the NASP (National Aerospace Plane) program,
and that it will be an experimental aircraft, and *not* a direct
replacement for the Shuttle or an operational launcher with useful
payload.

In the "others?" category, I would name Hermes, HOTOL, Saenger, Buran,
and HOPE.  I can't summarize them in this message, but maybe soon...

Bill Higgins, Beam Jockey              | Here Lies Bill Higgins:
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory  | He Never Ever Learned
Bitnet:           [e-mail]  | To Play Guitar So Well
Internet:       [e-mail]  | But He Could Read and Write
SPAN/Hepnet:           43011::HIGGINS  | Just Like Ringing A Bell

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 18:37:48 GMT
From: Steve Collins <[e-mail]>
Subject: Mars Observer Update - 09/25/92 (Launch Day)
Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.astro,alt.sci.planetary

Thanks for your words of encouragement. The launch was even more "exciting"
from the mission support area than it sounded on nasa select, and the
24 hours after acquisition are something I will never forget. The SC is
in better shape than any of us had hoped. Since we have spent the last
couple of months concentrating on procedures for really ugly failures, it
was great to stay on the nominal sequence of events. Oops! got to get
ready for TCM 1...
                 Steve Collins
                 AACS MO Spacecraft Team

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 18:04:24 GMT
From: Doug Mohney <[e-mail]>
Subject: Nick Szabo Disinformation debunking (Re: Clinton and Space Funding)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] writes:

>I changes my mind slightly while writing this.  Fission will be the tech of
>choice in Cislunar Space and Fusion for everthing else. We ain't gonna
>have either one if you keep pushing it back into the future with unsupported
>statments.

I can't believe I just read this. Eco-political considerations will keep
fission out of near-earth space. If you've got fusion, you've got fusion for
everywhere, unless I'm grossly missing something on the byproducts of a fusion
plant verses the neuroticism which must go into place to make sure a fission
plant doesn't end up in the atmosphere.



                 Play in the intelluctual sandbox of Usenet

  -- >                  [e-mail]                        < --

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 21:51:20 GMT
From: "Thomas H. Kunich" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Nick Szabo Disinformation debunking (Re: Clinton and Space Funding)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>
>I can't believe I just read this. Eco-political considerations will keep
>fission out of near-earth space. If you've got fusion, you've got fusion for
>everywhere, unless I'm grossly missing something on the byproducts of a fusion
>plant verses the neuroticism which must go into place to make sure a fission
>plant doesn't end up in the atmosphere.

You don't _have_ fusion. For here or anywhere else.  We _may_ have
fission drive, but just. And it's about as easy to do as colonize
the Mariannas Trench.

Fission drive is at least understood. Fusion is Big Science's way
to more money.

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 19:50:55 GMT
From: Henry Spencer <[e-mail]>
Subject: Nick Szabo Disinformation debunking (Re: Clinton and Space Funding)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>The forging of a coalition can easily turn an initially elegant solution
>into a committee'd monstrosity to get a large enough constituency on board.
>The shuttle is an excellent example of this.

I think it was Charles Sheffield who commented, approximately:  "A mouse
designed by the government isn't an elephant -- it's a giant squid, with
tentacles running off in all directions.  Apollo worked so well because
for a short while, all the political vectors pointed the same way.  That
will not happen again."
--
There is nothing wrong with making      | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
mistakes, but... make *new* ones. -D.Sim|  [e-mail]  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 19:59:51 EDT
From: Tom <[e-mail]>
Subject: platforms

>  It is my understanding that the LP does support withdrawl from the UN.

Just to keep things in context, the LP supports any action that decreases
tha amount of force used to push policies in other countries.  Take a look
at the general impression of Americans in Latin America, for a good
example of the failure of pushy foreign policy.

There's pretty good evidence that 'spreading democracy and freedom'
could be better served by allowing citizens of other countries free
access to America, and vice versa.  Meeting other citizens is always
more effective than propaganda.

-Tommy Mac                     .  "                  +
.------------------------  +                      *       +
|   Tom McWilliams; scrub       ,     .                        "        +
|  astronomy undergrad, at     *       +;.     .  '             There is
| Michigan State University   '                      .    "   no Gosh!
|   [e-mail]                        '      ,   *
|       [phone]       ;  +  '                                 *
'-----------------------

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 18:41:17 GMT
From: SLSTP <[e-mail]>
Subject: Space Life Sciences Training Program
Newsgroups: sci.space

***** ANNOUNCEMENT OF OPPORTUNITY *****
      American Undergraduates

1993 Space Life Sciences Training Program
A Summer Program at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida

Sponsored by NASA, Bionetics Corporation, Florida A&M University


The Space Life Sciences Training Program (SLSTP) is an investment in
tomorrow. It is an intensive six-week training program at the Kennedy
Space Center in Florida for college students interested in Life
Sciences, Pre-Medicine, Bioengineering or related fields. The program
will allow students to participate in the conceptualization,
preparation, preflight and postflight testing, data analysis, and
report preparation phases of space flight experiments and NASA life
sciences research.

The program is scheduled for mid-June through the end of July 1993.
After the successful completion of the program, five semester hours
of tuition free college credit will be offered to each student through
Florida A&M University, which is also responsible for program promotion,
student recruitment, selection, travel, housing, program evaluation,
and academic consultation.

The purpose of SLSTP is to attract college students interested in research
germane to the NASA field of Space Life Sciences. Participants will gain
insight into how space life sciences flight experiments are conducted as
well as explore future research opportunities in space life sciences.
After completion of this program and subsequent professional training,
the end result should be a pool of talented research scientists employed
in universities, industries, and NASA with practical experience in the
flight of life sciences experiments in space.

The six week SLSTP curriculum will involve morning lectures by leading
research scientists, managers, engineers, and astronauts from NASA Centers,
distinguished universities, and industry. Tours of the KSC shuttle and
payload facilities will provide students firsthand knowledge of the
processes involved between arrival of a life sciences flight experiment
at KSC and final integration of that experiment into the shuttle. In the
afternoons, students will be actively involved in the planning and
execution of experiments that span the range of life sciences research
of current interest to NASA. These experiments have been chosen to provide
the trainees with experience in as many aspects of flight experiment
development as possible - from experiment conception and design to timeline
development, protocol testing, and actual flight operations. Evening
and weekend activities will be scheduled to include informal discussions
with visiting lecturers and astronauts and work on special projects. The
curriculum will emphasize the unique features of experiments conducted
in the spaceflight environment which include weightlessness, space
limitations, and issues of compatibility with other on-board experiment
requirements.

Some of the potential flight experiments in which the students may become
involved include plant studies, animal development projects, human studies
of sensory conflict, and environmental studies related to spaceflight.
Student activities will include the opportunity to participate in
development and testing of operational protocols, performance of ground
based control experiments, direction, analysis, and evaluation of
postflight testing sessions, as well as participation in the implementation
of actual shuttle flight experiments when possible. Students will be
divided into groups of 9 to 10 and work in a rotating schedule on each
of the experiments, with opportunity for additional emphasis in at least
one project.

Students will receive round trip transportation between their home and
the Orlando International Airport in Florida, free accommodations in the
Cocoa Beach area near Kennedy Space Center, and local transportation to
and from the space center. Students will also receive a daily meal
allowance which should also cover other expenses. This program costs
nothing to the student - there is no registration fee.


***** HOW TO APPLY *****

Student enrollment is limited to 36 to 40 currently enrolled undergraduate
college students:

-> Eligibility is limited to currently enrolled undergraduate students who
are pursuing their first undergraduate degree.

-> A minimum cumulative GPA of 3.00 or higher at the time of application
is required.

-> Graduating seniors (those students who complete their senior year
prior to the start of the program in mid-June are not eligible to apply.
Fourth year seniors going to their fifth year are eligible.

-> Minimum age requirement is 16 years old

-> United States citizenship is mandatory. There are no exceptions.

-> Eligible majors include: Animal Sciences, Biochemistry, Biology,
Biophysics, Biostatistics, Chemistry, Computer Science, Ecology,
Engineering, Geology, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Pharmacy, Physics,
Plant Sciences, Pre-Medicine, Psychology.

If you have a question about the eligibility of your major, please call
the program office at 904-599-3636.

-> Previous SLSTP participants are NOT ELIGIBLE FOR A SECOND EXPERIENCE.


Application materials include:

-> A completed SLSTP Application form filled out in BLACK INK

-> An official transcript from every college or university attended up to
and including Fall 1992. Transcripts in the possession of the applicant
will not be accepted.

-> A SLSTP postcard on which you will write you address. It will be
sent back to you when all of you application materials have been received
in our office.

-> A 500 word typed double spaced essay which will be used to evaluate the
applicant's experience and written communication skills. The essay should
relate to the classroom, laboratory and research experiences of the
applicant in the sciences. Moreover, the career goals of the applicant
should be concisely stated. Print you full name on each page of the essay.

-> Three completed reference request forms from persons familiar with
you academic record. This is very very important.


Application requests should be sent to:

Program Director, SLSTP
Florida A&M University
College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences
106 Honor House
Tallahassee, FL 32307

or call [phone]


The following application materials must be post-marked no later than
January 31, 1993 and be sent to the same address. ALL necessary credentials
must be on file before an application will be processed.

Applicants will be notified of their acceptance or non-acceptance no
later than March 31, 1993.

This is a worthwhile experience. Most of the students that participate
in SLSTP regard it best educational experience of their lives. If you
have any interest in space, please apply. I was a student in 1990 and a
staff member in 1992. If you have any questions regarding the program
(that are not of an application nature), you can contact me at
[e-mail]

For questions regarding the application, contact the program office.

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 28 Sep 92 19:00:23 EDT
From: Tom <[e-mail]>
Subject: Space platforms (political, not physical :-)

>> If [Clinton] gets elected after all but promising to raise taxes $1.5E11
>> BEFORE the election, think of the things he'll do once he's in.  Brrr...

>And what is Bush going to do if he gets back in now he's sold his soul to the
>Fundamentalists like Pat Robertson????

He'll waffle his way through, wrecking the well-being of the citizens while
helping his political buddies (those with $$).  Clinton's plan would only
wreck the well-being faster, while failing to help his political buddies
(the one's with pull).

>This is about a *lot* more than space funding which, quite frankly, is a side
>issue for *all* of these politicians.

Sure it is.  I see a lot of people talking about letting private funding do
what it can in space, wihtout gov interference.  That's what the LP
platform is all about.  All references to gov. 'helping' people, 'creating'
jobs, 'reforming' education, etc. are a side-issue to the LP, as all
these goals would be fulfilled by letting the citizens keep their $$, and
getting gov back to it's job:  Catching crooks, cleaning the environment,
or making the jerks who [explitive] it up fix it, and generally protecting
our rights; something 150 years of Rebublicrats have destroyed.

Has anyone heard any references to "Extopians"?

-Tommy Mac                     .  "                  +
.------------------------  +                      *       +
|   Tom McWilliams; scrub       ,     .                        "        +
|  astronomy undergrad, at     *       +;.     .  '             There is
| Michigan State University   '                      .    "   no Gosh!
|   [e-mail]                        '      ,   *
|       [phone]       ;  +  '                                 *
'-----------------------

------------------------------

Date: 28 Sep 92 18:32:38 GMT
From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey <[e-mail]>
Subject: Toutatis impact in 2000 AD? (was Re: Help !)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Ron Baalke) writes:
> In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] writes...
>>They say that, on September 28, 2000, the Toutatis asteroid
>>(diameter 1 kilometer) may hit the earth. They say that
>>normally the distance would be the same as the Earth-Moon
>>distance, but that there is a rather big uncertainty.
>
> The comet will pass .074 AU from Earth in the year 2000, which is 3 times
> farther than its closest approach coming up on December 8 (.025 AU).

Not responsive to the question.  How big are the error bars?  That is,
Toutatis will miss the Earth by .074 AU, plus or minus how much?

Just beecause the 2000 encounter figure is larger doesn't mean its
uncertainty is the same.  Conceivably it could be fuzzier than the
1992 encounter-- maybe enough for a significant chance of collision.
I have to say that this seems unlikely, though.

There are other interesting questions, like "Which side of the Earth
is facing Toutatis at the time of the 2000 encounter?"  or "According
to the best guesses, how big a SPLAT! would it make?"  (I recall that
there are crater-size formulae in the sci.space FAQ, but I can't at
the moment access my records about the estimated size of Toutatis.)

Oh, by the way, Donald Yeomans of JPL mentioned at the World Space
Congress that Hubble was scheduled to take a look at Toutatis this
winter, but couldn't provide any more information when I questioned
him on this.

I am sure that by the time the Decmber 1992 encounter has happened,
the uncertainties in Totatis's future position will shrink
considerably.  Then we will know whether we should start panicking or
forget about the whole thing.

     O~~*           /_) ' / /   /_/ '  ,   ,  ' ,_  _           \|/
   - ~ -~~~~~~~~~~~/_) / / /   / / / (_) (_) / / / _\~~~~~~~~~~~zap!
 /       \                          (_) (_)                    / | \
 |       |     Bill Higgins   Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
 \       /     Bitnet:     [e-mail]
   -   -       Internet:  [e-mail]
     ~         SPAN/Hepnet:      43011::HIGGINS

------------------------------

End of Space Digest Volume 15 : Issue 259
------------------------------